Cointegration

Cointegration is a statistical property of a collection (X1,X2,...,Xk) of time series variables. First, all of the series must be integrated of order 1 (see Order of Integration). Next, if a linear combination of this collection is integrated of order zero, then the collection is said to be co-integrated. Formally, if (X,Y,Z) are each integrated of order 1, and there exist coefficients a,b,c such that aX+bY+cZ is integrated of order 0, then X,Y, and Z are cointegrated. Cointegration has become an important property in contemporary time series analysis. Time series often have trends — either deterministic or stochastic. In an influential paper, Charles Nelson and Charles Plosser (1982) provided statistical evidence that many US macroeconomic time series (like GNP, wages, employment, etc.) h

Cointegration

Cointegration is a statistical property of a collection (X1,X2,...,Xk) of time series variables. First, all of the series must be integrated of order 1 (see Order of Integration). Next, if a linear combination of this collection is integrated of order zero, then the collection is said to be co-integrated. Formally, if (X,Y,Z) are each integrated of order 1, and there exist coefficients a,b,c such that aX+bY+cZ is integrated of order 0, then X,Y, and Z are cointegrated. Cointegration has become an important property in contemporary time series analysis. Time series often have trends — either deterministic or stochastic. In an influential paper, Charles Nelson and Charles Plosser (1982) provided statistical evidence that many US macroeconomic time series (like GNP, wages, employment, etc.) h