Calibrated probability assessment
Calibrated probability assessments are subjective probabilities assigned by individuals who have been trained to assess probabilities in a way that historically represents their uncertainty. For example, when a person has calibrated a situation and says they are "80% confident" in each of 100 predictions they made, they will get about 80% of them correct. Likewise, they will be right 90% of the time they say they are 90% certain, and so on. The Applied Information Economics method systematically uses calibration training as part of a decision modeling process.
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Calibrated probability assessment
Calibrated probability assessments are subjective probabilities assigned by individuals who have been trained to assess probabilities in a way that historically represents their uncertainty. For example, when a person has calibrated a situation and says they are "80% confident" in each of 100 predictions they made, they will get about 80% of them correct. Likewise, they will be right 90% of the time they say they are 90% certain, and so on. The Applied Information Economics method systematically uses calibration training as part of a decision modeling process.
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Calibrated probability assessm ...... nt (Lichtenstein et al. 1981).
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Calibrated probability assessm ...... f a decision modeling process.
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Calibrated probability assessment
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