The Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is a project "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. It was a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in the United States. Predictions are scored using Brier scores. The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information."
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Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) ProgramCalibration (statistics)Carl SpetzlerDon A. MooreGood Judgment OpenGood Judgment ProjectIntegrated Conflict Early Warning SystemJoshua FrankelList of psychologistsLyle UngarMichael C. HorowitzPhilip E. TetlockPrediction marketProgram on Vehicle and Mobility InnovationSciCastStructured expert judgment: the classical modelSuperforecasterSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionThe Wisdom of CrowdsWisdom of the crowd
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The Good Judgment Project
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is a project "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. It was a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) in the United States. Predictions are scored using Brier scores. The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information."
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The Good Judgment Project (GJP ...... ctual classified information."
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The Good Judgment Project (GJP ...... ctual classified information."
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The Good Judgment Project
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