Rule of succession

In probability theory, the rule of succession is a formula introduced in the 18th century by Pierre-Simon Laplace in the course of treating the sunrise problem. The formula is still used, particularly to estimate underlying probabilities when there are few observations, or for events that have not been observed to occur at all in (finite) sample data. Assigning events a zero probability contravenes Cromwell's rule, which can never be strictly justified in physical situations, albeit sometimes must be assumed in practice.

Rule of succession

In probability theory, the rule of succession is a formula introduced in the 18th century by Pierre-Simon Laplace in the course of treating the sunrise problem. The formula is still used, particularly to estimate underlying probabilities when there are few observations, or for events that have not been observed to occur at all in (finite) sample data. Assigning events a zero probability contravenes Cromwell's rule, which can never be strictly justified in physical situations, albeit sometimes must be assumed in practice.